The NFL consistently ranks as one of the most unpredictable sports leagues globally, a fact highlighted during Week 7 of the 2026 season when both the unbeaten San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs suffered unexpected defeats. This shake-up has resulted in significant alterations to playoff projections for the season, prompting experts to examine potential outcomes for the remainder of the year.
To aid in forecasting the playoff landscape, analytics expert Stephen Oh conducted simulations for the remaining games of the regular season and playoffs. A total of 165 regular-season games are left, along with 13 playoff matches, all of which were accounted for in the simulations. The predictions extend beyond just the playoff participants, as they also include the potential Super Bowl champion.
Projected AFC Playoff Field
The AFC playoff picture has undergone notable shifts following Week 7. With the Chiefs dropping their game, the Buffalo Bills are now favored to secure the No. 1 seed in the conference.
The projected playoff field for the AFC includes the following teams, along with their current records:
- 1. Bills (5-1) - AFC East champion
- 2. Chiefs (5-1) - AFC West champion
- 3. Jaguars (4-2) - AFC South champion
- 4. Bengals (4-2) - AFC North champion
- 5. Broncos (4-2)
- 6. Steelers (5-2)
- 7. Ravens (4-3)
Teams just missing the playoff cut include the New England Patriots (4-3) and the Cleveland Browns (5-2). A significant aspect of this projection is the Bengals now leading the AFC North, a position they achieved thanks to a remarkable performance in Week 7, where they became the first team in 75 years to win by at least 20 points after trailing by at least 13 at halftime. The Bengals also benefit from a favorable schedule, with only one remaining road game against a team with a winning record.
In contrast, the Browns, who have not won a division title since 1989, are projected to finish at 8-9 and miss the playoffs again this season.
Projected NFC Playoff Field
Turning to the NFC, last week’s projections anticipated the 49ers would secure the top seed. However, their recent loss allowed the Minnesota Vikings, now the league's sole undefeated team, to claim the top spot.
The current NFC playoff projections are as follows:
- 1. Vikings (6-0) - NFC North champion
- 2. 49ers (6-1) - NFC West champion
- 3. Falcons (3-4) - NFC South champion
- 4. Cowboys (3-4) - NFC East champion
- 5. Lions (4-2)
- 6. Seahawks (4-3)
- 7. Bears (5-2)
Teams on the cusp of making the playoffs include the Green Bay Packers (4-3) and the Los Angeles Rams (3-4). A noteworthy change in the NFC is that the Cowboys are now projected to lead the NFC East, marking the first time this season they have been positioned at the top. The competition in the NFC East appears to be a tight race, primarily between the Cowboys and the New York Giants, with Dallas currently holding a 38.5% chance to win the division, just ahead of the Giants at 37.3%. Their prospects are bolstered by an easier remaining schedule.
Currently, all four teams in the NFC North would qualify for the playoffs if the season ended today. However, projections indicate that not all will advance, as the Seahawks are favored to claim one of the wild card spots, leading to at least one NFC North team being sidelined come playoff time. In this scenario, the Packers would be the team left behind.
Wild Card Round Predictions
As the playoffs unfold, the wild card matchups are anticipated to bring exciting confrontations:
- (2) Chiefs vs (7) Ravens: Chiefs win 26-20. This matchup features quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, making for a thrilling postseason opening.
- (3) Jaguars vs (6) Steelers: Jaguars win 25-20. Historical performance suggests that the Jaguars have found a way to excel against the Steelers in past playoff encounters.
- (5) Broncos vs (4) Bengals: Broncos win 24-23. In a surprising upset, the Broncos’ defense manages to contain quarterback Joe Burrow.
- (2) 49ers vs (7) Bears: 49ers win 27-24. Both teams improve defensively, but the 49ers still prevail.
- (6) Seahawks vs (3) Falcons: Seahawks win 24-21. The Seahawks aim to break their losing streak against the Falcons in the playoffs.
- (5) Lions vs (4) Cowboys: Lions win 33-30. The Lions defeat the Cowboys, extending Dallas's playoff woes.
Divisional Round Predictions
As the playoffs progress, the following matchups are projected for the divisional round:
- (1) Bills vs (5) Broncos: Bills win 26-20. Following a prior postseason loss to the Broncos, the Bills are expected to secure victory on their home turf.
- (2) Chiefs vs (3) Jaguars: Chiefs win 23-21. The Jaguars face yet another postseason elimination at the hands of Mahomes.
- (1) Vikings vs (6) Seahawks: Vikings win 20-17. A matchup marked by strong defenses, the Vikings edge out the Seahawks.
- (2) 49ers vs (5) Lions: 49ers win 29-28. The 49ers narrowly defeat the Lions in a rematch.
Conference Championship Predictions
Advancing to the conference titles, the projected matchups include:
- (1) Bills vs (2) Chiefs: Bills win 28-23. In a long-awaited postseason win, the Bills finally overcome the Chiefs in Buffalo.
- (1) Vikings vs (2) 49ers: Vikings win 23-20. A strategic battle results in a victory for the Vikings.
Super Bowl LXI Projections
For Super Bowl LXI, a showdown between the Bills and Vikings is predicted, with the Bills projected to win 26-21. Both teams are seeking their first Super Bowl victory, setting the stage for a dramatic conclusion to the season.
As the simulation illustrates, this is the first time the Bills have been favored to win the Super Bowl this season, holding a 12.97% chance of success, closely followed by the Vikings at 11.15%. Teams like the Chiefs, 49ers, and Jaguars are also noted to have significant chances of making a deep playoff run.
Frequently Asked Questions
What teams are projected in the NFL standings for 2026?
The projected NFL standings include the Bills, Chiefs, Vikings, and 49ers, among others, based on current performances.
Who is favored to win the Super Bowl in 2026?
The Buffalo Bills are currently projected to win the Super Bowl, followed closely by the Minnesota Vikings.
What is the significance of the wildcard games?
The wildcard games determine which teams advance to the divisional round, adding intensity to the playoff experience.
How does the playoff simulation work?
The playoff simulation calculates outcomes based on team performance, historical data, and current standings to predict future scenarios.
What factors influence the NFL playoff projections?
Factors include team records, remaining schedules, player injuries, and historical performance in similar scenarios.
Source: CBS Sports
Illustration photo: Internet Archive Book Images / Wikimedia Commons (No restrictions)
